Reconstruction and rivalries: What to expect from Saudi Arabia's Gaza summit
Hamas has already made a big concession by allowing private American and Egyptian military contractors to operate inside Gaza
Saudi
Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with US Secretary of
State (not pictured) in Riyadh, on 17 February 2025 (Evelyn
Hockstein/AFP)
Published date: 20 February 2025 20:10 GMT
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Last update: 20 hours 20 mins ago
US President Donald Trump’s call for a mass forced displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip was meant to “shake up everyone’s thinking”, his envoy said on the eve of a meeting in Saudi Arabia by the US’s Arab allies to discuss Egypt’s plan for post-war Gaza.
"When the president talks about this, it means he wants to shake up
everyone's thinking and think about what is compelling and what is the
best solution for the Palestinian people," Trump’s Middle East envoy,
Steve Witkoff, said on Thursday at an investment conference in Miami.
"For instance, do they want to live in a home there or would they
rather have an opportunity to resettle in some sort of better place, to
have jobs, upside and financial prospects," he added.
The US’s closest Arab partners were thrown into disarray when Trump
said he wanted to empty Gaza of Palestinians and take over the enclave.
But they have started to move on a counter-proposal.
In fact, after a meeting between Trump and King Abdullah of Jordan
earlier in February, they believe the king successfully convinced Trump
to ditch his takeover idea in return for a post-war plan spearheaded by
Cairo, an Egyptian official told MEE.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to host leaders from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates in Riyadh on Friday to discuss the Egyptian proposal.
Who pays for reconstruction?
The Saudi meeting has the added benefit of occurring simultaneously
with the FII summit in Miami that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund
hosts. Trump has said he is eager to increase Saudi investments in the
US and is scheduled to address the event.
'To reconstruct a territory that the Israelis might just destroy
again in a matter of years, I don’t think that would be a sensible thing
to do'
- Prince Khalid bin Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud, Saudi ambassador to UK
Just because Trump has warmed up to an Arab post-war plan for Gaza
and is keen on Gulf cash does not mean the crown prince and his
counterparts have it easy.
The Egyptian plan, which has now been widely reported, calls,
unsurprisingly, for Palestinians to stay in the Gaza Strip. They would
live in mobile housing while debris is cleared away and reconstruction
begins.
The main sticking point is who will pay for reconstruction and temporary housing.
Analysts and diplomats have speculated that Trump’s call for the US
to take over the enclave without paying for it was a ploy to get
oil-rich Gulf states to foot the bill.
More than $50bn will be required to rebuild Gaza, a joint assessment
provided by the United Nations, European Union and World Bank on Tuesday
said. At least $20bn will be required in the first three years.
Egypt and Jordan are
cash-strapped, and the US has put no pressure on Israel to pay for the
devastation of its bombing campaign, so Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar would have to foot the bill.
That itself is a major jump. In recent years, the Gulf states have
become reluctant to give funds to their poorer Arab neighbours. In
Egypt, they have demanded businesses and other concessions in return for
keeping President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s government afloat.
Palestinians walk past tents lining the streets amid the
rubble of destroyed buildings in Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip,
on 18 February (Omar al-Qattaa/AFP)
Trump actually hinted at what could be the most likely model for
Gaza’s redevelopment by saying that in return for rebuilding the
war-torn enclave, the US would obtain development rights. Instead of the
US, it could be the Gulf states.
The UAE did the same thing in Egypt by paying $35bn to develop Ras el-Hekma on Egypt’s northwestern coast.
But the Gulf states have dug in, saying they will not spend money if Gaza can just be blown up again by Israel.
Asked in an interview in January if Saudi Arabia would fund Gaza’s
reconstruction, Prince Khalid bin Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud, Saudi
Arabia’s ambassador to the UK, said:
“To reconstruct a Palestinian state, yes. To reconstruct a territory
that the Israelis might destroy again in a matter of years, I don’t
think that would be a sensible thing to do.”
Israel is dead-set against the creation of a Palestinian state and
the unification of Gaza and the occupied West Bank under a single
Palestinian government. But that is also Saudi Arabia's official
precondition for normalising relations with Israel - a key goal for both
the Trump administration and Israel.
Will Israel restart the war?
Some heavy machinery for reconstruction has started arriving in Gaza,
in a deal Egypt brokered. But before that starts, the war-ravaged
enclave’s security must be settled.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a
pre-recorded video vowing revenge after Hamas handed over the bodies of
four dead captives, including an infant and his four-year-old brother.
"Our loved ones' blood is shouting at us from the soil and is
obliging us to settle the score with the despicable murderers, and we
will,” Netanyahu said.
During the event, like previous captive releases, Hamas demonstrated
that its organisational and military capacities remain intact. It also
drew large crowds of Palestinians.
Israel launched its ferocious assault on Gaza after the Hamas-led 7
October 2023 attack on southern Israel, vowing to totally eliminate the
group from power. It has not been able to do so.
Israel has killed at least 48,319 Palestinians during its bombing
campaign and invasion of the enclave, the majority of whom are women and
children. Thousands are still missing, maimed or orphaned.
Israel said its condition for phase II ceasefire talks, which would
lay the groundwork for Gaza’s post-war governance, is that neither Hamas
nor the Palestinian Authority (PA) govern the Gaza Strip.
Will Hamas give up security control?
Hamas has demonstrated that it retains its arsenal and can easily put
fighters in the field. Meanwhile, the PA previously told the US it was
prepared to “clash” with the group in order to take power in the Gaza
Strip.
A senior Egyptian official told MEE that their plan would not entail
intra-Palestinian violence because they will establish a police force
made up of Palestinians from Gaza who do not belong to Hamas and are not
affiliated with the PA in the occupied West Bank. Meanwhile, they will
appoint local technocrats and notables to govern the enclave in its
early days.
Hamas fighters gather at site of the handing over of the
bodies of four Israeli hostages, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza
Strip, on 20 February (Omar al-Qattaa/AFP)
The Egyptian official did not say who they would use. One
high-profile figure who could potentially fill that role or play
kingmaker is Mohammad Dahlan, a member of the secular Palestinian party
Fatah, who is an ally of the UAE.
Dahlan has been travelling often to Cairo in recent months. He was a
former PA enforcer in Gaza but clashed with PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
The UAE has publicly said it is willing to deploy Arab peacekeepers
to Gaza in return for a new leadership in the PA. But Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and the UAE all have different Palestinian allies, so they will
need to agree - at a time when they are backing rivals in civil wars
like Sudan.
Hamas previously told MEE it was willing to cede governance to other
Palestinians, but the real question is whether the group would lay down
its arms.
The Egyptian official told MEE they are trying to prevent a situation
resembling 1990 Lebanon, where a Lebanese government was formed that
ended that country’s civil war, but Hezbollah kept its weapons.
Hamas has already made a major concession on security in the Gaza
Strip. As part of the ceasefire deal, American and Egyptian private
military contractors have been deployed at the Netzarim Corridor
bisecting Gaza.
Photos online show them in tactical gear and cradling assault rifles.
There have been no public reports of fighting with Hamas or any other
Palestinian armed group.